State sportsbooks earned an average of 5.7 cents for every dollar wagered on soccer in 2021, according to the University of Nevada’s Gaming Research Center. You earned 5.5 cents for every dollar you bet on basketball and 4.8 cents for every dollar you bet on baseball.
However, Parley 32.1 cents per dollarwhich illustrates why so many ads from sportsbooks, promotional odds boosts, and other marketing incentives now revolve around parleys.DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said at the June He told attendees at the Goldman Sachs Travel and Leisure Conference that his organization’s focus on parlays will be further strengthened.
“What we’re doing is trying to be smart about eliminating sharp actions and restrictions. [it] At least…and make sure the parlay mix is high because people like it,” Robbins said.
Sportsbooks work very well with parlays because each individual bet must be won in order for the parlay to be cashed. If you lose one, your entire bet will be evaluated as a loss. The odds of a parlay turning into cash depend on the odds of each bet involved. If you have two bets of +100 each on him (bet $100 and win $100), then the parlay win rate is about 25%. If each of these bets is -110 (bet $110 to win $100), your chances improve to 27%, but the payoffs are also slightly lower to reflect those odds.
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Where many bettors get into trouble is chasing big scores in multiplayer parlays that often feel like a certainty. A 6-leg parley with odds of -233 on each leg (meaning he has a 70% chance of winning each leg) might feel like a relatively safe bet. In reality, you only have about a 12% chance of winning.
And single game parlays — an increasingly popular option where bettors must choose between multiple bets. internal Same Game — Selecting correlated bets may result in penalties. This means that there is a positive relationship between the bets and the odds of the bet being successful are high.
Here’s an example from this baseball season. Let’s say FanDuel creates a parlay for his one game in June between the New York Mets and the Milwaukee Brewers. We want to take a total of 8 runs offered at odds of -110. Also adding Pete Alonso’s home run at odds of +310, he wants to give his parlay one game at two wagers, which pays +485.
However, these two events are interrelated. More home runs usually means more runs scored.Run total bet instead under 8 runs, also -110, but keep Alonso’s homer prop to give 2 runs Uncorrelated Same game event — The potential return jumps to +980 even though the odds for each bet are exactly the same (+310 and -110). Considering the price of the two bets, the fair value of this parlay is around +680. In other words, correlated parlays are significantly underpaying bettors, while uncorrelated parlays are overpaying. Not all sportsbooks are at this disadvantage, so be sure to compare prices at various retailers.
Single game parlays may have different rules for the same bet. For example, at DraftKings, if you bet straight on a player who scores a hit in an MLB game, he must start and score at least one at-bat for the bet to stand. A player is only required to bat if the same bet is part of his parlay for a single game. In other words, he could pinch hit for one at bat later in the game and the bet would be considered live, a clear disadvantage to the bettor.
The same bet may also have different prices depending on whether it is used in a single game parlay. This is the exact same game offered at DraftKings for both straight bets (top) and single game parlays (bottom). Money Line, Run Line and Over/Under Total have different odds for the same stake. (Not all differences are against bettors.)
Then there are odds “boosts” offered by sportsbooks, many of which are offered by two or three leg parlays. This season, the Caesars have proposed “boosting” two-leg parleys, in which Bryce Harper and Jorge Soler must each hit a home run. However, FanDuel allows you to make the same bet with odds of +1846 using his parlay for 1 game without boost. In other words, a sportsbook sells a product, so their enthusiasm for a special parlay his offer may not necessarily be of any value to the bettor.
Finally, beware of promoted parlays. These usually string together a few favorites to give the illusion of a shortcut to winning bets. Obviously not.draft kings promoted a parley During a baseball season that included a Houston Astros win (-180), an Atlanta Braves win (-280), and a scoreless first inning (-125) between the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks (-125). The advertised parlay offered odds of +280, but the fair value price (based on Pinnacle’s sportsbook after removing Vig) was +320. On paper, his three bets at negative odds (each should take precedence to win) look like a promising 3-0 ticket, but the math (and reality) is very different. increase. Even with three dominant favorites at odds of -250 each (meaning a 71% win rate per leg), the odds of going 3-0 are only 36%.
Is a parley the big winner for your home? absolutely. Does this mean we should avoid them altogether? No, just like any other bet, if you think you have an advantage, you should bet accordingly. If you are confident that you have an edge in multiple games, it makes sense to combine them to increase your profit.
But you can enrich your house more often than your own bankroll by impulsively betting on parlays every turn.
Illustration by Lily LK for The Washington Post.