- A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea
- The recession should soon become a tropical storm.
- A potential hurricane threat to Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
- Anyone interested in these areas should have a hurricane safety plan ready.
A tropical storm is forming in the Caribbean and could pose a hurricane threat in the western Caribbean, including Florida, and the southeastern United States next week.
This latest system will be added to Hurricane Fiona in the West Atlantic and Tropical Storm Gaston in the Central Atlantic.
We are in the very early stages of tracking this modern system. There are aspects of the forecast that we are more confident about, while others remain uncertain.
Here’s everything we know so far.
Tropical Depression 9 is located in the central Caribbean Sea and is moving west-northwest.
We’ve been battling wind shear and dry air for the past few days, but on Friday morning it organized enough to be considered a tropical cyclone.
Latest forecast track, intensity
A tropical depression is forecast to turn into a tropical storm later today.
Depending on whether it or another system in the East Atlantic becomes a tropical storm first, I’ll be named either Hermin or Ian.
This future tropical storm is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean by the end of this week or early next week. Then, by next Tuesday or Wednesday, it could be anywhere from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to near the Florida peninsula as a hurricane.
Declining wind shear and ample supply of warm deep water in the Caribbean are factors expected to contribute to strengthening the system in the coming days.
What is the Caribbean threat?
Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba should closely monitor forecasts in this system.
Flooding rains are likely to be a concern in these areas, starting at least this weekend. Depending on the exact trajectory and strength of this system, tropical storm and hurricane conditions may also occur.
What is the US Gulf Threat?
Unlike what was seen with Hurricanes Earl and Fiona, this system’s forecast wind direction poses a significant threat to the continental United States later next week.
Most of the computer forecast models, perhaps with the strength of the hurricane, will bend the system northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.
However, some models take a sharp northeast turn from the southeastern coast rather than the bay. Several other models track the system over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf of Mexico.
The bottom line is that it’s too early to tell exactly where this future system will track next week.
At this time, all parties on the Gulf Coast, including Florida, and the Southeastern United States Coast should monitor forecasts and ensure hurricane planning is in place in case of need.
Please check back at weather.com for updates on this evolving situation.
Details from weather.com:
12 things you may not know about hurricane forecasts
7 Things Florida Newbies Need to Know About Hurricane Season
Lucky for the Florida Peninsula as Hurricane Irma doesn’t last long
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