It may be a little early to talk about Labor Day predictions a week in advance, but with the tropics booming this week, there are a few things that seem worth paying attention to.
The primary region of interest is still over the Atlantic, but it will most likely be the next named storm (Danielle).
The disturbance continues its westward movement, then gradually shifts northwest throughout the week, towards the Leeward Islands.
Hurricane Centers have a 50% chance of becoming tropical within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of forming within the next 5 days.
Predictive models now show the storm to stay north of the Leeward Islands, turn northeast, and stay out of the ocean.
However, depending on how strong the storm is and how close it gets to the United States before it leaves, parts of the East Coast may be at risk of rip currents.
If a hurricane actually hits offshore on Labor Day, it could affect the United States without a direct hit.
Along the east coast, gusts of wind and even coastal rip currents could be seen, even though the storm remained offshore.
The bigger the storm, the higher the sea level and the stronger the rip currents.
Also, the closer the storm is to the United States, the greater the impact.
I’m not saying this will happen. All I can say is that this is worth watching all week long.
Potential for development in the Western Caribbean
The Hurricane Center near the house monitors the Western Caribbean region for possible development.
The Hurricane Center said, “Environmental conditions could slow the development of the system as it then migrates west-northwest through the Caribbean Northwest and toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.”
There’s only a 20% chance of it happening in the next five days, but it’s worth keeping an eye out for Labor Day weekend.
Even without storms, Texas rainfall increases by pumping excess moisture into Texas.
Other attention areas
There are two other areas the Hurricane Center is monitoring for potential development.
One is tropical waves off the coast of Africa. The Hurricane Center gives it a 30% chance of occurring within five days.
Another feature, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, is showering activity. However, future developments are unlikely.
The Hurricane Center said, “Strong upper winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system, but it will drift southward and southwest over the central Atlantic over the next few days and could dissipate by the weekend. I predicted there will be. .
The Hurricane Center says there’s only a 10% chance of it happening in the next five days.
With a burst of observations in the tropics, it’s clear that September 10, the peak of the hurricane season, is approaching.
More Floods Possible in Texas
Parts of Texas, mostly South Texas, that were less affected by last week’s floods could see as much as 7 inches of rain this week.
The threat of flooding in Lone Star State begins today, with areas like Houston, Galveston and Beaumont having a 50% chance of 5 inches or more of rain.
“A low-energy lobe of upper tropical humidity will support numerous showers and thunderstorms today from the central and northern coasts of Texas to the southwestern part of Louisiana,” the Center for Weather Forecast said.
The Center for Weather Forecast added, “By Tuesday, the heavy rain threat should shift to central and western Texas, and energy should move inland.”
Total rainfall for central and western Texas is expected to reach 2 to 4 inches this week.
More rain is likely in heavier downpours or if storms start training in certain areas. When a storm travels over the same area for a long time and flashes repeatedly without any relief.
It is impossible to pinpoint where flooding may occur.
With the rain leading up to Labor Day, you might be wondering what the holiday weekend will be like.
It’s hard to predict so far, but models show the Gulf rains will continue into Labor Day weekend.
Most of the showers and storms will remain on much of the Texas and Louisiana coast, with more spotty showers in the eastern Gulf Coast.
We are also looking at the possibility of fronts crossing the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast over Labor Day weekend.
Rain is likely, but temperatures behind the front will also be cooler.