We are very excited to bring our unique blend of neuroscience and love of fantasy football to Yahoo Sports this season. I got my Ph.D. in Neuroscience and is currently Professor in the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences at the University of Rochester. Living in Rochester makes me a fan of the Buffalo Bills. Fantasy Since 2006 he has been playing football and since 2011 he is an avid NFL and NBA DFS player.
When I was teaching a cognitive neuroscience course in the fall of 2012, I asked a colleague to talk about cognitive biases. This is a relatively new topic for me. Fantasy He was in the middle of the football playoffs and quickly realized that his biases were affecting his team’s decision-making in different ways. Over the next year, I learned as much as I could about cognitive biases and how they apply to fantasy sports. At the time, there was no intersection between these disciplines, and no one even talked about recency bias as it relates to fantasy.
I wrote a short e-book called “Cognitive Biases in Fantasy Sports: Is Your Brain Sabotaging Your Team?” We covered the various biases, why they persist, and how they can negatively impact your mid-draft fantasy decisions, weekly lineup settings, or navigating Waverwire. It’s outdated — there’s a Tim Tebow mention — but it remains an excellent introduction to the science of cognitive bias and how it applies to fantasy football.
How do cognitive biases affect decision-making in fantasy?
Common pitfalls include biases such as: holding effectif you overestimate what you have invested. Superiority effect — More on this below. recency biasif you overestimate what happened recently. confirmation bias, if you believe information that confirms previously held beliefs while ignoring conflicting data. etc.
One of the biggest challenges fantasy football enthusiasts face is determining which fantasy performances are reliable and sustainable. real Compare that to something that is erratic, random, and not worth your time or your FAAB. Every week, some players exceed our expectations and others dramatically disappoint. Who can you trust?
I aim to help you arrive at the most logical answers each week with an article I call Fantasy Football Facts or Flukes: Lenny’s Reaction to Week X.
[It’s fantasy football season: Create or join a league now!]
I hope this introductory article has helped you in some way to a more logical, data-driven mindset as you navigate through Week 1 of the game rather than the usual emotional roller coaster. . Simply recognizing that your own brain can twist and interpret the results of your fantasies in suboptimal, lazy and illogical ways can reduce the impact of biased processing on your final decisions.
The first week of a new season is always hectic. First-round picks get a lousy four points, while players you’ve never heard of or who’ve been in the league for 13 years get multiple scores. dominate the space. After months of offseason analysis and preparation, our brains are primed for this emotional response to Week 1 player stats. We are overloaded with norepinephrine, a neurotransmitter that motivates, alerts, and enhances memory. For better or worse, these two chemicals overreact.
Negative results and disappointment in the players we trusted hit us in areas of the brain like islands that experience the same kind of pain as a fracture. Strengthen. This strengthens your self-image and protects your ego as it confirms your strategy and expected rewards.
These things are true like every week of the NFL season, but the long-awaited first week makes us very sensitive. The idea behind dominance bias is that the first event in a series is more important in memory and analysis than later events. If you’ve ever had to memorize lists of items, names, numbers, groceries, etc., chances are you’ll remember the first list more often and easier than his fourth or fifth list. Recent effects also work for this kind of task. The last item on the list is remembered better than the middle item. It’s not just memory. When the first and last items are used to make a decision, these items are given more weight.
If the item is not milk, bread, deodorant, but a fantasy statistic such as weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, the following performance in week 5 is most similar to week 1 and/or week 4. tend to think. Ignore the second and third weeks.
Sometimes the more you know about football, the worse things get.what do we think we know should do it Happens, how the team should do it Use a player, offensive or not should do it Excessive use of runs or passes in certain matches. One of the main reasons modern humans still have cognitive biases is to protect our egos and ego (if they had no purpose, evolution and natural selection would have eliminated them). Contrary to our assumptions.
The New England Patriots are a poster team that defies logical expectations, credit to Bill Belichick and a big reason for their huge success, but they’re not the only team either.
Planning ahead to admit that you are sometimes wrong can be a great defense against bias and keep you open to learning. Many biases focus on responsibility and attribution. In general, we are more likely to blame others when we make bad decisions and take credit for ourselves when we make good decisions. Even if you do, your brain will tell you that it’s wise to start players who do well, and fantasy analysts tell you that it’s foolish to rank poorly performing players as highly as they did. rice field.
Get ready to review player performance through a new lens as we head into the exciting first week of the 2022 season. We strive to use hard data and logic, not emotion, to evaluate the amazing stats you get from every NFL game. Heading into the season with a skeptical frown on the brain’s initial emotional response should give you a stepping stone to perfect the logical process as the season progresses.
you can find me on twitter @reneemiller01 Also, if you want to learn more about cognitive biases, my Twitter profile has a link to my book.