FOX Sports Betting Writer
college football Betting got what I called a week 0 soft launch a few days ago. Aside from Northwest Nebraska playing across the pond in Dublin, Ireland, there hasn’t been a very juicy game. But now it’s time for a complete liftoff!
The hefty first week schedule includes all the big schools that dominate the conversation about college football odds throughout the season.
Here are some interesting college football betting nugget touchdown values for the 2022-23 season, after speaking with some of the oddsmakers:
the heavyweight of Ohio
Yes, Alabama is once again a favorite in the odds market for the College Football Playoff Championship. And, of course, defending national champion Georgia also sits high on the betting board as his third choice in consensus.
But between those two lies a big problem spot for BetMGM. It’s Ohio State University.
A few months ago Ohio State University opened +600. Buckeyes placed a $10,000 bet at that price, and its client expected a potential payout of $60,000. And while the 6-to-1 odds aren’t disappointing, its bettors got good value compared to the current situation at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes enter Week 1 at +320 and win the National Championship. This trails only Alabama’s price of +190 and puts Ohio just above Georgia (+350) on his BetMGM.
Additionally, the Buckeyes are tied with Alabama for tickets to the national championship, and Ohio State has the second-most prize money, just behind “Bama.” Ohio is currently BetMGM’s largest debt.
Oh, star quarterback CJ Stroud also plays a big role in the Heisman Trophy odds market.
BetMGM’s Vice President of Trading, Jason Scott, said:
That said, Scott and his Risk team have no problem with championship responsibilities. When it comes to the future of college football championships, needing the SEC is not a bad thing.
“We’re happy to be with the SEC school in January. We’re happy with the big negative numbers against the Buckeyes,” Scott said.
Oh Say Can USC
There has been a resurgence of interest in betting in Southern Cal. And there are multiple sportsbooks (PointsBet USA, BetMGM, The SuperBook, etc.) working hard in the college football championship odds market.
“USC is a team that has seen a lot of public action in the futures market,” said Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at SuperBook. “We opened the Trojans 30-1 in January and are now 25-1 with a lot of responsibility. USC brought in a lot of transfers with new head coach Lincoln Riley. So I can understand the public’s love for Trojan horses.
“It’s safe to say I’m not rooting for USC to make it to the college football playoffs.”
At BetMGM, one customer joined relatively early by betting $2,000 on USC +3500. If the Trojan has a banner season, it represents a $70,000 win potential. USC’s current odds at BetMGM are +2000.
Vandies dandy start
Vanderbilt disease is usually an afterthought every year, and the results generally prove why. Expectations are not high for the Commodores this season as well. Most sportsbooks set Vandy’s win total at 2 or 2.5.
But by playing in week 0 and winning big, Vanderbilt has a much better chance of getting there. The Commodores went to Hawaii where he defeated the Rainbow Warriors 63-10. Week 2 sees Vandy returning home on Saturday to face his FCS opponent, his Elon. The Commodores are his 20-point favorites at WynnBet. This brought Vanderbilt’s number of wins for the season to his two.
WynnBet reported that one customer in the sportsbook operator’s Tennessee market bet $4,000 on Vanderbilt for two or more wins at -150. By this weekend, that customer is virtually guaranteed a push. This means you never lose a bet. Worst case scenario, the bettor gets back $4,000. Unless, of course, Vandy pulls his Vandy.
But if the Commodores perform as expected, all bettors need is for Vanderbilt to go 1-9 in their last 10 matches. It yields a nice profit of $2,666.67.
Oh Say Can You ACC
Clemson is a firm favorite at the odds to win the ACC Championship. Despite last season, he’s no surprise there for college football teams who regularly make reservations in his playoffs.
The Tigers are -120 in the Superbook, Miami is second with +500, and North Carolina is +650. However, there has been a surprising move in the ACC market.
“Louisville is betting almost twice as much as we bet to win the ACC than any other team,” Denyon said. “We opened the Cardinals at +6000, and since then the odds have halved to +3000, which is a bit of a surprise considering Clemson and Miami are usually the favorite teams among the masses. ”
That said, Louisville is still behind the favorites as the ACC’s joint sixth choice with Florida.
Grin and Bear It
Baylor had a solid 2021-22 campaign, going 10-2 in the regular season and beating Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game. We believed it deserved playoff consideration. Baylor had to settle for a bid for the Sugar Bowl, where they outscored Mississippi 21-7.
This season, oddsmakers expect Baylor to back them up. But bettors remain bullish against the bears in at least one betting market.
“One winning total that saw one-way traffic is Baylor Bears over,” Degnon said. “In July he opened with a 7.5 (over -130) and now he’s at 8 (over +100). This is going to be one of the bigger decisions he makes. [in the win total market], so hopefully Baylor will take some steps back from their impressive 2021 campaign. ”
Week 1, Saturday afternoon, No. 11 Oregon will take on defending national champion and number three Georgia. At least Duck doesn’t have to play among the hedges on his field home to the Bulldogs in Athens, Georgia.
Just 90 minutes from our campus in Georgia. But at The SuperBook he’s a 17-point underdog, Oregon has a few takers as well as points his spread.
“We recently placed a five-figure bet on the Oregon moneyline at +600, which put us in a position where we absolutely needed Dawgs,” says Degnon. “Georgia is bound by a lot of parlays, but he has more straight bets on the Ducks to cover the spread.”
a little luck
Superbooks are now also able to take advantage of Ireland’s first week of luck. No. 5 Notre Dame will start the season on Saturday night in highly hostile territory at Horseshoe with No. 2 Ohio. And Notre Dame is a pretty underdog with a 17 point load.
“We’re standing now, so we’re going to need Fighting Irish to cover the numbers,” Denyon said on Thursday. But the weekend is still young. At some point, we will see public support for Notre Dame.”
Other Notable Nuggets
It’s always interesting to see some of the flyer bets posted in sportsbooks around the country. Here are some of such bets made on BetMGM:
- Bet $500 on North Carolina to win the national title at odds of 150-1. That ticket is probably nothing more than a drink coaster and is unlikely to actually pay off.
- With odds of 1000 to 1, UTEP will win $100 — yes, UTEP — for the National Title. Win $100,000 in Alternate Universe.
- Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara wins the Heisman Trophy for $650 at odds of 200-1. The winning stake is $130,000.
- Some of the SEC Championship Odds Flyers: Ole Miss +6600 Wins $1,000, $66,000. Win $1,000, $50,000 in Tennessee +5000.
Finally, a very loyal Kansas bettor dropped $10,000 to the -135 Jayhawks over 2.5 wins. A win would be around $7,400.
Patrick Everson is a Sports Betting Analyst for FOX Sports and Senior Reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers and is a prominent journalist in the domestic sports betting industry. Based in Las Vegas, he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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