All the data match. Warmer-than-normal conditions may persist for weeks to a month or longer.
First, something has to be straightened out. When I’m talking about the long-term temperature forecast, it’s the average for all days during the forecast period. . Therefore, the 45-day forecast has only a handful of days with temperatures that are cooler than the daily average.
Also remember that we are not forecasting “warm” weather. The forecast is warmer than normal. It’s up to you to decide if it’s warm or not.
For long-term forecasting using weather model outputs, a 45-day run of the European model and a US model called GFS and its 30-day output are available.
Both models show warmer-than-normal temperatures for the following month and a half.
Just below is a series of temperature anomaly forecasts for five days from now through late October. Note that only yellow and orange colors are shown. This means that the weather model predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures over the next 45 days.
The US model shows a very similar output.
US models show temperatures in Michigan to be 2 degrees warmer than normal. I convert that to a temperature about 4 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal.
So what does this mean in terms of actual temperatures? Through late October, southern Michigan can expect temperatures to soar from 75 to 83 degrees in the afternoon. On cooler days, look for afternoon highs in the high 60s.
Don’t give up on summer just yet. The next month will see more afternoons with temperatures above 80 degrees, and through September it will feel more like summer than fall.